Tomorrow Night: Pacquiao vs. Mosley

After much consideration, I've made some conclusions about the fight tomorrow.

JD's Keys to Victory
Pacquiao:

• Be Pacquiao (i.e. be faster, stronger, more accurate, and more busy than Shane).
• Don't forget about defense.  We saw Antonio Margarito's punches start to have an accumulating effect in that fight, despite the mismatch.

Mosley:

• Your first punch needs to hurt Pacquiao.  A straight right down the pipe (a la Juan Manuel Marquez when he fought Pacquiao) could make a huge difference in the composure of Pac-man for the rest of the fight.
• Often and consistently land bombs to the body.  Left hooks--like the one that knocked out Mayorga--and right uppercuts.  You need to slow down Pacquiao for any chance of winning, and body shots are your best bet.
• Get him against the ropes.  Then go to the body before he ducks out.
• Don't head-hunt.  (Look what happened to Ricky Hatton).
• Be intelligent about tying up.  Don't tie up after you land a good punch; Pacquiao is not known for his counter-punching.  Keep throwing if you land a good punch.  Only tie up if he's already landing.
• Jab jab jab.  Jab jab jab jab jab jab.  Jab.

So Mosley clearly has a big task ahead of him.  And even if he does all this, he could still lose.  Freddie Roach has called this training camp Pacquiao's very best.  Which leads me to my prediction.

JD's Prediction: 

Mosley will have a game plan that reflects the keys to victory I laid out for him.  The problem is, he won't have an answer to Pacquiao's volume of punches.
Rounds 1 and 2 go to Manny.  He lands many more punches than Shane as Shane tries to figure out Pacquiao's timing.  Round 3 is a tossup round.  Shane has a better sense of Pacquiao's rhythm and hits Manny with a few hard power punches.  Always open for good old fashioned warfare, Manny lands a few right back in Shane's direction.  A heated exchange happens in that round.  Manny wins the round on two scorecards.  Round 4 is more one-sided, like rounds 1 and 2, as Mosley tires and Pacquiao capitalizes.  In the fifth round, Pacquiao counters a straight right from Shane that puts Shane on the canvas.  Shane quickly gets back up with a grimace on his face but he clearly is rattled by the knockdown.  The next few rounds he is easily out-pointed as he tries to get his bearings back.  In the 9th he hurts Pacquiao with a good left hook and open a cut on Manny's right eye.  Shane wins this round on all three cards.  The tenth round is close as Shane lands more jabs to hold Pacquiao off and worsen the cut.  Shane wins the round on two cards.  Pacquiao turns up the heat in the last two rounds, winning both.  In the last 10 seconds of the fight he puts Mosley down again, who gets up again.
Manny Pacquiao wins by a unanimous decision in 12.

-JD