It's been a highly criticized match up. People think Manny's gotten too big and too good for Marquez since their last fight in 2008. However, if you read my prediction back when rumors started surfacing, you'll know that I think Marquez will persevere.
Background
The two first met up at 126 pounds in 2004. Pacquiao was coming off of his breakthrough fight--his TKO victory over Mexican legend Marco Antonio Barrera for The Ring Featherweight title. His popularity soared after that fight, as he became the first Filipino and Asian to win titles in three different weight divisions.
Marquez won the IBF title from Manuel Medina and the WBA title from Derrick Gainer. His popularity was rising too, but among Mexican fans he had always been overshadowed by Barrera and Erik Morales. Still, Mexico was live and well cheering him on for this fight.
Pacquiao absolutely devastated Marquez in the opening round.
On top of the knockdowns, Marquez's nose was broken. But somehow Marquez came back, and he had Pacquiao figured out for the next 23 rounds.
The rematch took place at 130 pounds in 2008. Here's the 24th round between the two:
The first fight was ruled a draw, with scorecards 115-110, 110-115, and 113-113. The second was a split decision, with 115-112 for Pacquiao, 115-112 for Marquez, and 114-113 for Pacquiao.
These were close, close fights.
Aftermath
Since these two fights, both boxers have become huge. Marquez is perhaps the most esteemed Mexican boxer out there. And Pacquiao, as you may know, is a household name just about everywhere on the planet.
Pacquiao put together a string of unbelievable wins against Oscar de la Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto, Joshua Clottey, Antonio Margarito, and most recently, Shane Mosley. That Pacquiao once fought professionally as a flyweight and has since dominated welterweights is nothing short of amazing.
Marquez followed Pacquiao up in weight, looking for a third fight. At lightweight, he knocked out Joel Casamayor and Juan Diaz, the latter of whom put up a tremendous fight. As Pacquiao jumped up from lightweight to welterweight to fight Oscar de la Hoya, Marquez did the same to fight Floyd Mayweather. In a fight that makes me cringe to even mention, Mayweather schooled Marquez for all 12 rounds. Since then, he's had a decision win against Juan Diaz and a TKO over Michael Katsidis, both back at lightweight.
Marquez vs. Mayweather???
As far as I'm concerned, it was the biggest fluke in boxing history.
The fight got a ton of hype. Boxing experts such as Bert Sugar were going on about how good this fight would be. Oscar de la Hoya even expected Marquez to beat the undefeated Mayweather. The two greatest counter-punchers were squaring off and it was going to be awesome.
But Marquez was coming up 9 pounds in weight from his 135 pound division. The fight was taking place in the 147 pound division, but at a catchweight of 144. Marquez showed up looking flabby, weighing 142, while Mayweather weighed in at 146 pounds, 2 above the agreed limit. Best of all, instead of cutting the weight, he paid Marquez $600k to accept the weight disparity.
Marquez faced a Mayweather who was bigger and faster. And he got rocked.
Why Marquez Will Beat Pacquiao
- First off, he's allegedly putting on the weight "correctly" this time. According to Marquez, he has hired doctors to help him put on the weight in a healthy and efficient manner. He's also taken up dancing, according to some sources, to build muscle in his legs to keep his speed as he moves up. This could all be meaningless, but who knows? We may very well see a completely reformed Juan Manuel Marquez come November.
- Secondly, since his loss in the rematch, Marquez has been eating, sleeping, and breathing Pacquiao. He wants this win more than anything. Pacquiao, on the other hand, probably hasn't thought about Marquez since 2008.
- Some people claim that Pacquiao has improved greatly since the last Marquez fight, which is true. He now throws punches at odd angles and has perfected his right hand. The person who realizes this more than anybody else is Marquez himself. He co-hosts a boxing show on Mexico's ESPN channel called "Golpe a Golpe." [Great show, for anybody into boxing who can semi-understand Spanish like myself. I wish it aired in the States.] In one episode, he demonstrates (very impressively) how Manny has improved over the years. Knowing Marquez, he will make a game plan that accounts for this.
- Finally, Marquez fights best against a guy who comes forward. Mayweather backed off, forcing Marquez to be the aggressor and consequently miss shots. Pacquiao will be coming right at Marquez., and Marquez will never have been so dangerous.
On a more personal note, these two are my favorite boxers currently, largely because of their two fights. I expect their third to be no less exciting. Let me hear what you got on this fight and my opinion on the outcome.
-JD
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